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Guest post: turmoil laps around the Gulf, but prospects remain bright

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By John Sfakianakis

Gaza, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Egypt are all part of a region which has been consumed by anarchy, violence and destruction since 2011. But there is another part of the Middle East which is a striking contrast to all that: the Gulf. Many outsiders think it’s only a matter of time before the turmoil that has swept other Arab countries also overtakes the rulers of the Arab Gulf. They’ve been thinking that for close to a century.

The economies of the Gulf oil exporters are expanding. Over the last decade vast wealth has been accumulated which affords the Gulf countries a level of resilience that few in the emerging markets can match. Gulf currencies which are pegged to the greenback have offered additional stability. The elevated level of oil prices – at above $100 per barrel – is providing oil producing countries with a fiscal cushion. Thus, even as many other emerging markets try to find an equilibrium, Gulf countries will continue to do well and accumulate more reserves while sustaining high spending.

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